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Lst bounce factor, which really does exist. "Horses dropping by 30% or more win 378% of their rightful share of races!". The question to ask yourself is has this horse recently been competitive at todays class level and if not have they ever been competitive at this level? By Noel Michaels The leading riders at the New York winter meet at Aqueduct are Dylan Davis, Trevor McCarthy, Kendrick Carmouche, and Manny Franco. No Say you're looking at a $30K open claiming race: It might include a last-out maiden special winner, or a runner from an optional claimer, a restricted claimer, a starter handicap, an allowance race - or, God forbid, all of the above! Advertising on UK Horse Racing. Table ranked by win strike rate. A horse making it's first ever race course debut will have Flat Runs of 0. If you, like us, believe that the class of the event is determined by the main attendees then the class is the same. Changers, Distance e.g. More Racing StatsFlatStats has dozens of stats for you to view such as stats for first time geldings, change of trainer, sires on soft ground and much more. He is listed as xB. thaskalos. In pari-mutuel wagering, your competitor is the person sitting next to you. Course Stats, Latest Introduction to Class - Hello Race Fans! Cards, Search The statistics on class-droppers are surprising, and show just how important this factor can be . You would not expect a high school team to perform well against a group of NFL veterans. Stats, Trainer Flat Stats for combination runs. Class drops are most frequently noted in claiming races. ), A Grade I race for older males has an RCL of 210, with Grade II older males receiving a 205. the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and Figures from flat turf and all weather. All Rights Reserved. Stats, One Ride Movers, 1st Time coming off a good race (win or in the money finish). 1. For Latest News Visit Our Facebook . However, if its first race back has been stressful (dueled with determine if a favorite is vulnerable. Simplified Class Based Ratings - Today's Racing Digest This website does not endorse or encourage illegal gambling. 3]IF MORE THAN ONE PLAY IN A RACE.. THEN TOP HORSE IS THE ONE WITH THE MOST LENGTHS IMPROVEMENT AT THE FINISH!! A good rule of thumb is to assign a preliminary class rating of half the value of the horses sole win. As a whole, horses that were claimed in their last race, performed as follows: Number: 16,671 Winners: 2,777 Win Rate: 16.7% $2 Return (ROI): $1.59 (-20.57%). It would be nice if we could come up with a neat way of judging and handicapping for class. [[DOESNT SAY WHAT TO DO ON DISTANCE SWITCHES IN THOSE RACES? Stats for combination runs on this code only. If a horse is dramatically dropping in class. Basic will show standard stats figures such as wins, runs, strike rate, A/E and profit. You can do extensive research, and compile the data that will allow you to delineate claiming ladders, and categories using average pace ratings or pars. today and looks too good to be true, it probably is. Run, BetTurtle Horse Login; Register; Help; HOME RACES Today's . Throw in a It has managed to finish second and third a number of times but cannot seem to manage a win. Welcomes global players. At Turfdom, we have come up with a number of proven rules to Of course, the sample size is wholly insufficient, but the numbers mirror what Ive seen in other too-good-to-be-true scenarios: the win rate goes up, but the odds go down way down. It just goes to show that there are Jockey Sire must have had 10 wins on AW to be included. That is worse than the 80% of people that fail at , By Ed McNamara Classic Causeway bolted to the lead out of the gate, and before the 8-5 favorite reached the turn, he had company on , By Richard Rosenblatt If at first you do succeed, you might as well try to do it again. Horses Dropped in Class - Horses Today Dropping in Grade Handicappers, Well Many shrewd betting experts study the trainers and horses covering the longest distance to the racecourse today. Bovada is our favorite pick for USA Bettors! Only horses who have earned win or place prize money on this surface included. Handicappers, Well We support responsible gambling, so in case you require information about gambling addiction or need support please use the link BeGambleAware. Summary Overview, Malcolm's Method Race Information Unsound ones with problems do not. . All handicappers that have been in the game for more than a few months know of the class-drop factor. UK Horse Racing :: The Ratings The negative drop down angle seems to have lost its bite in recent years.perhaps as a result of the over-inflated purses that we see in today's casino-assisted version of this game. ALSO THE RATE OF WINS IS ONLY 16%, BUT THE AVERAGE PRICE PAYOFF IS ABOUT $11.60 AND AVERAGE LENGTHS IMPROVEMNET WAS 6 1/4 . Rating time or speed doesn.t matter may the horse be with vince the prince does anybody ever hear of ben gateman write systems for g.e. The desire to run and compete is inherent but it is not always enough. Above Average Edge, Case Studies He is listed as xB. Accepted. Advanced will also show Expected Wins (SRI) and Archie (chi-squared) statistical figures. Any horse trying a new distance today sprint-to-route or vice versa is a risky You can access these pages by browsing the Stats section of the menu bar. Runs But actually its the second attempt at the same class after previously dropping. involved. There are so many possible factors for consideration when handicapping a horse race and such a multitude of opinions on how to best handicap the races key factors are often lost in the haze of information overload. Online Sports Betting Goes Live in Louisiana, Top Gifts for Horse Racing Fans & Bettors, Ultimate tips for online horse race betting, nice bonus, and more when you sign up today, Twin Spires Is The Official Betting Partner Of The Breeders Cup, Death of Jockey Megan Taylor at Ashburton Raceway. Very informative from all of you folks, but I wouldnt expect much less from the people Gary keeps company with. Gem Song But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists. Ernest Hemingway, The whole idea of government is to give the few a way to exploit the many. Bill Bonner, Meditation is simply a question of being, of melting, like a piece of butter left in the sun. -Sogyal Rinpoche, America has gazed into the abyss and apparently decided to sign a lease and move in. James Howard Kuntsler, I play to win and if it looks like Ive lost, its only because its not over yet. Kiera Dellacroix, The Melborne Cup: The Race That Destroys the Favorites, The game revolves around money in every regard. Now, the party`s classification was dropped but the same people turned up. When a horse takes a class drop this means it is taking a step down where competition is concerned. For instance, a Grade I Stakes race for older males is always a 210, a $32,000 claimer for older fillies and mares is always 140. Several things would give me pause, starting with the steep drop in class (and purse value) and ending with Tribal Jewels eroding speed rations and subpar recent works, particularly his latest. The data in the table is a powerful resource which demonstrates how much a horse is rising or dropping in class from its last race. There are some positive things to look for as well. Sample / ConfidenceIf advanced info is selected you can filter out stats with either low sample sizes or low statistical relevance. At most racetracks the bottom of the claiming ladder is $5,000. Stats for combination runs. Breaking news, expert analysis and handicapping reports to help you win at the track. Favourite Stats, Trainer National Hunt website is for entertainment purposes only. You can devise your own angles to bet class at your favorite online racebook. If they are good players, perhaps they make it to a college team. The game revolves around money in every regard. Suspicious Drop in Class today By developing products like BetTurtle, our goal is to make horse racing more rewarding for our customers. Distance wins are from both all weather and turf. Id like to comment on the person with the insight on the 2cd drop down ANGLE. Favourite Stats, Trainer All Weather Trainer, Trainer All Weather Stats, One Ride Horse Body Language: How To Read It And Understand It - Equus Magazine Now of course, there are almost always more than one class dropper in a race, so this factor wont just give you the winner, but it will sure help you to focus on the most likely contenders in these claiming type races. Stats, Jockey Flat The Vulnerable Favorite - by Rod Young Turfdom - Today's Racing Digest Results, Course Runners, Shrewd Trainer Runners, One Runner "What do you guys and gals do when you see this?" Differentials Impact Class drops are just one approach. I hope, though, that the results will re-enforce in your mind one of the over-riding facts of handicapping and betting horse races: Horses dropping in class win far more than they should. Class drops are most frequently noted in claiming races. Alm Stats, Jockey National Hunt And look at what happens when those same horses compete . Learning to spot one of these class angles is sometimes all the handicapping you need to pick a winner. Today's Race Competition Level (RCL) for Past Performances. Tips for Evaluating Maidens Dropping in Class It would be good if you offered a free trial for people, even if it's just for a day so people can look around the full site and see what it has to offer. We are a team of passionate racing enthusiasts and IT experts with a belief that studying horse racing form is too hard and time consuming for most people. Saddled by a Losing Trainer Suspicious Drop in Class today. Stats, Jockey Flat If you have a horse who drops, you'll know what I'm talking about! Whether it be from DSLD/ESPA or injury, these techniques presented will make your horse more comfortable and happy. Horses Dropped in Class Today Here is the full list of racehorses' who are running today and have been Dropped in Class. Below areraces fromthis past Sunday, July 22. Are there any easy-to-spot signs that make a suspicious drop in class following a claim, well, suspicious? Read through all the free materials on this site - then check out: our products . main clue is the program and the morning line. Ratings, Course Stats By First, we have to decide who the public will make the favorite in a given race. Once we find such a favorite, this is the type of race we If today's race is on turf then only the jockey and trainer combination turf stats are shown. In claiming races, it's quite simple to determine if a horse is going up or down in class. Horses can compete in claiming, allowance, or stakes level events according to their ability. Key, Past Winners Nobody gives anything away at the racetrack. Your email address will not be published. As stated earlier, at some tracks there are - rather than distinct class levels - class groupings. Lets say a horse achieved its only win in a Maiden Claiming Race for $20,000. DAVE HENRY Any horse that drops suspiciously in. ; Click the Horse filter button. If a horse is wearing Blinkers for the second time it may have worn other head gear previously. For it is my opinion that such drops are not as easy toassess as they were in the past. Stats, All Green We at UK Horse Racing think not. Class droppers won 11 of those, or 61% of them. The following lists the rules (or criteria) to which the horse must adhere. It really is that simply. c) Any race in which none of the participating horses can run to par for that given 4-1 TO 5-1. For that reason, many punters like to bet on horses who have dropped in class. someplace i long for a 6 or 8 for w.o. Favourite Stats, Jockey National Hunt Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. or better. Stats, Jockey National Hunt Just like other athletes, these horses have different skill levels. What is class? And how to tell if a horse is rising/dropping? Healthy horses work out and race. Note that 3 of the races were won by horses staying at the same level as previous race, so then only 4 races were won by horses going up in class thats just 22 %. (This data does not include; how many up-in-class horses were in these races (perhaps some of them contained no class risers), how many last-race winners there were, how many droppers lost, how many low odds droppers won - etc. SP, 1999-2019 UK Horse Racing Do you have stats such as % of top weight winners in handicaps & nurserys? Today, many trainers with clout have no trouble running a horse for less than it is worth or, perhaps more accurately put, less than what the owner thinks it is worth. Not taking odds and favoritism into account as a quick over-all stat class droppers win almost three times as many races as class risers! With claiming races, its not always about identifying the best horse (actually, thats rarely true of any race the odds always matter but you get the picture). Any use of this information in violation of federal, state, provincial or local laws is Horse Handicapping | Horse Racing Handicapping, (by the simple definition given earlier) =. b) Raced within 24 days and a work within eight days Period. Horses which won last time out on either flat turf or all weather surface. And look at what happens when those same horses compete for a purse less than half of what it was in their last race: Number: 122 Winners: 28 Win Rate: 23.0% $2 Return (ROI): $1.15 (-42.25%). Table ranked by place strike rate. I'll make a few generalized assumptions before showing you some recent figures . I've presented this short research only to make a generalized point: Stats, Trainer National Hunt With this simplified class rating system you will now clearly understand if a move up or drop in class for a horse in today's race is a big jump and how that compares to other horses in the field allowing you to you quickly and easily determine if the horse is a contender at today's race class level. There are many tables on this page but each of them are useful for analysing today's races from a stats point of view. proposition. another horse for a good part of the race), it will not fire in its next start. Horse Alternatively, you can read the Cafe Casino review first. Recently, on the Homeless Handicappers Facebook page, a member asked about a horse named Tribal Jewel, who had been claimed for $16,000 at Del Mar on Nov. 25 and was subsequently entered for an $8,000 tag at Santa Anita on Jan. 6. Take action today, and your horse handicapping, and horse racing betting will make a huge leap into the profit zone. Posted by ginag2 on Jul 24, 2012 in Blog | 7 comments. ITS BEEN AROUND A LONG TIME. Mini Horse Facts - Scott Creek Miniature Horse Farm A horse that can only run a half-mile in :48 seconds is unlikely to ever beat a horse that can run the same distance in :44 seconds. Wins at the course (all weather track). If a horse that has been competing in higher valued races drops to this level, use caution. IF BOTH ARE TIED USE MOST MONEY WON FOR IN THE LIFETIME TOTAL, NOW FOR THE BAD ? Runners, Available Data Horse Racing Stats for 3rd Mar 2023 - All Meetings - FlatStats . Favourite Stats, Trainer All Weather Required fields are marked *. Betting class will also help you to eliminate horses from contention. If the Jockey, Horse Stats By Race The best way to bet a drop in class is to find horses that were 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in their most recent race at a higher level. I've found that when horses drop down several classes in one fell swoop, more often than not, the drop down isn't big enough. Flat Runs includes runs from both flat turf and all weather. Trying a New Distance or Surface Today If a horse has been struggling at a certain claiming level, the trainer and owner may wish to drop to a lower price. When a horse is entered in a specific claiming race for a certain price, the owner and trainer are stating what they believe the horse is worth. is going to take place? No Recent Victories class drop is important lets not forget the age of the horse also i feel classdrop in horse 5yrs and under in males and gelding come pair to females is important just notice it males in c/d seem to put there heart into it notice 5yr old gelding nest time but as we all know what looks solid couse of action today dies tomorrow also time off between c/d is important to me unless horse is w.o. Guest are limited to viewing 3 items per table. Favourite Stats, Trainer National Hunt In this guide we look at horses who have been dropped in class, this means they are running against weaker horses than in their last race. Alternatively, you can read the Bovada Racebook review first. Last ran figure from the flat turf or all weather only. Simply put, good trainers win races, bad ones dont. Our table shows all the horses who have dropped in class and are racing today, check them out for yourself. Stats, Longest Stl% Horse Handicapping: Finding and Betting Class Drops. Theoretically, it will now be facing horses closer to its own skill level. If they plan two races of two similar classes both for horses raced 70-120, say, and in one race horses with the Official Rating of 70 turn up and in the other only horses rated 120 start, would it be fair to say that these two races are of the same class? track take-out being anywhere from 16 to 25%, depending on the type of wager, you must stay a) Claimers, non-winners of two lifetime. Zozos will be their first Kentucky Derby entry after . $2 Return (ROI): $1.51 ( -24.53%) Notice that the win rate stayed about the same, but the $2 net return actually decreased. The Toss it. Notice that the win rate stayed about the same, but the $2 net return actually decreased. Table ranked by earnings per start. In horse racing there is a method of grouping horses by their talent level. W-R figures obtained from flat turf and all weather runs. Minimum of 10 runs to qualify. In most cases, their odds line is accurate in determining the race favorite. Horse Handicapping Articles (click to view/read) Making a Betting Line Success And Luck Turn Time - the hidden fraction Track Specific Spot Plays Stl ]]IN THE LAST RACE ARE CLOSER TO THE WINNER THEN THE 2CD LAST RACE BACKITS A CONTENDER . U.S. Remember, should it 9 Jockey, Jockey All Weather If a horse in relatively good form faces weaker competition, it's logical to believe that the lesser competition will enable the horse dropping down to shine. Stats, Tipping Hall of HORSE ODDS POS CHANGE STATS TRAINER JOCKEY OR FM SP F A C V M PICK; 7 Feb 2023: MARKET RASEN: 1:45: 2: CEDAR ROW 100: 1] FIND ALL HORSES WHOSE DROPPING IN CLASS [2CD] RACE BACK TO THE LAST RACE [[AND]] TODAYS CLASS IS LOWER OR EQUAL TO THE CLASS OF THE LAST RACE. So the question is when do you know when that favorite is going to win? Runners, One Runner Favourite Stats, Jockey All Weather YOU MAY EVEN SEE A HORSE THAT WON ITS LAST AND RIDER IS NOT ON TODAY WHEN RIDER HAS BEEN OFF OF TWO OR THREE OTHER HORSES LIMIT JOCK ON HORSES OF LAST THREE OR FOUR RACES ONLY. Should a horse fail on any of these rules (even one of them) The data in the table is a powerful resource which demonstrates how much a horse is rising or dropping in class from its last race. Changers, Good Performers Last Two of which Nice article. To refine and discover your own preferred betting angles, why not register an account today with one of our recommended horse betting sites. Favourite Stats, Jockey All Weather I GOT A SYSTEM LONG AGO THAT WAS CALLED THE DROP DOWN COVER UPSYSTEM. 9. Your email address will not be published. So, from this we can go to another `A` event and then say whether this particular event was better, poorer or the same as another `A` event. Trainer, Trainer All Weather Reading The Ratings Graduates have just one win on their past performances and there is usually not much data to evaluate. I often have found class drop winners from trainers on the NYRA circuit moving into MCl or Never this Low for the first time. Days Beyer #s and recent success, have become so over used that prices have become surpressed over the last few decades. e.g.To find the best Trainer and Jockey combination today click All MeetingsIf there are meetings on turf and all weather and you want to find the best combination on turf click Turf MeetingsIf you want to find the best combination at a specific meeting then click the name of the RacecourseIf you want to find the best combination in a specific race click the Race Time. m/f Ratio of sires All Weather A/E to Turf A/E. As an example, a non-winners-of-two Allowance races for older males at Santa Anita would carry a class rating of 155. Fearless Knight: Sunshine Coast Race 4: $1,970,000: 6,567%: 1. A similar race at Turf Paradise is rated at 130. Read reviews by other subscribers or leave your own review on. If they plan two races of two similar classes both for horses raced 70-120, say, and in one race horses with the Official Rating of 70 turn up and in the other only horses rated 120 start, would it be fair to say that these two races are of the same class? w/r/c Past Class can be found in the race header in column 13 titled Past Class. However; after 26 years in the game, I've concluded one thing: Race betting can be a whole lot simpler than some "experts" try to make it out to be. "Class drops" (any drop in claiming price or drop from a "protected" race into an open race) will be shown in gold - class jumps in blue. Any horse that drops suspiciously in They have had sufficient time to prove their ability. The exception to this rule is the Easy to deposit & Withdraw. Absolutely amazing site, only wish I could afford the full subscription. given date. Class Changers. Sign up to get the latest insights delivered straight to your inbox. The horse dropping in class has long been one of horse racing's most reliable betting angles. Favourite Stats, BetTurtle Jockey Theres problems with this horse and we want to get rid of it (even so often while also trying to grab one last purse). Ratings, Course Stats By Legitimate favorites win races Minimum of 30 runs to qualify. race. Those stats are eye-popping. 50% free bets up to $250 5% cash back. The first race back has already taken too much Click here to visit Ignition Casino! Yet favorites do win races, generally If he's standing in his stall or pasture with a lowered head, he's probably either resting or asleep; call his name and make your approach obvious so you don't startle him. EXAMPLE: 16 L BACK IN 2CD LAST RACE AND 4 LENGTHS BACK IN LAST RACE == 12 L. DIFFERENCE WOULD BE BET OVER AN 8 LENGTHS IMPROVEMENT OF ANOTHER CONTENDER. Stats, Trainer How to Figure Horses Dropping in Class After Being Claimed Recently, on the " Homeless Handicappers " Facebook page, a member asked about a horse named Tribal Jewel, who had been claimed for $16,000 at Del Mar on Nov. 25 and was subsequently entered for an $8,000 tag at Santa Anita on Jan. 6. either of its last two races is a vulnerable favorite. Code, Trainer Horse Trainer Jones has been running his horse in $15,000 claiming races. Arrived at your site by accident and found it one of the most informative and interesting racing sites, well done. I want find records of historical winning SP to class of of race rating - Flat & NH do you have these ? Trainer The Class-Drop Factor | horsebettingsuccess.com With this simplified class rating system you will now clearly understand if a move up or drop in class for a horse in todays race is a big jump and how that compares to other horses in the field allowing you to you quickly and easily determine if the horse is a contender at todays race class level. Included are; Optional claimers, starter handicaps and allowance races (as well as stakes races) - as opposed to straight claimers (at similar price levels) where the horse can be lost via a claim. Each race carries an RCL that applies to all horses who competed in that race. this level. Horse Race Results Prediction Guide & Cards | Proform Racing