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One of my brothers made his own calculation regarding one of Binazirs assumptions and came up with a figure that would make the probability of existence even smaller: My numbers are more simplistic, but assuming 100,000 eggs/woman & 12 trillion sperm/man creates 1.2 x 10^18 combinations for every man/woman pairing (i.e., significantly more combinations than the 400 trillion or 4 x 10^14 mentioned in the article). That is, instead of making one big hand-waving gesture and pronouncing, "The answer is 500 squintillion," we make a series of sequentially-reasoned, smaller hand-waving gestures so as to make it all seem scientific. This button displays the currently selected search type. Similarly, Dr. Ali Binazir, in his article for The Huffington Post, has a clever calculation that resulted in his estimate that the probability of being born is 1 in 10 2,685,000 . The numbers are getting plenty huge as it is. So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is one in 400 quadrillion. Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or about 1 in 700 trillion. And the chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in two. Let's say a life preserver's hole is about 80cm in diameter, which would make the area inside about 0.5 square meter. You get the volume of planet Earth. You can consider using our babies name resource to choose baby at 12 weeks old that suits your needs! The Arena Media Brands, LLC and respective content providers to this website may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. This includes personalizing content and advertising. I'm Heidi, I'm a writer, a mama and a sober recovery teacher/mentor. The odds of being murdered are relatively low when compared to other possible causes of death. It makes me want to love better, to hug my baby more, to appreciate the miracles in my life, my family, my friends, my teachers, The animals, plants, precious food, the bugs and butterflies. Check out my course, The RecovHer Freedom Breakthrough at the top of the page. But Im not mathy. This is also true of their parents, and so on till the beginning of time. It would be your cousin Jethro, and you never really liked him anyway. Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: one in 2000. Say humans or humanoids have been around for about 3 million years, and that a generation is about 20 years. It's the probability of 2.5 million people getting together -- about the population of San Diego -- each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Let's confine the pool of possible people they could meet to 1/10th of the world's population 20 years go (1/10th of 4 billion = 400 million) so it considers not just the population of the US but that of the places they could have visited. This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. In fact, He has been preparing a place for each of us in the kingdom, from before the creation of the world. You have the rarest of chances in the universe to experience what life feels like. That number is not just larger than all of the particles in the universe its larger than all the particles in the universe if each particle were itself a universe. In other words, when seen in the aggregate, that probability is simply stating that it is very hard to predict _who_ will exist and not that someone will. The Cycle of Hatred and Revenge Ends With Me A Homily for the 7th Sunday of the Year. HubPages is a registered trademark of The Arena Platform, Inc. Other product and company names shown may be trademarks of their respective owners. Not only are you and I contingent, we are highly improbable! It's the probability of 2.5 million people getting together -- about the population of San Diego -- each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. In other words, as this infographic figures it, you are totally improbable. Because the existence of you here now on planet earth presupposes another supremely unlikely and utterly undeniable chain of events. It is like finding out how many angels can stand on a pin-head! On one try.. Step 3. Probability of boy meeting girl: one in 20,000. That probability is low but the presence of super-novae throughout the cosmos is not. Probability of boy meeting girl: one in 20,000. alex mendez political party; land for sale bundaberg repossessed houses; how does macbeth and banquo's relationship change; skyking richard russell The likelihood that improbable events occur is controlled by the scale of the Universe. Love, H, Writer, Mama, Spiritual Warrior @RecovHer, Sharing is Caring! Then what would be the chance of your particular lineage to have remained unbroken for 150,000 generations? dr ali binazir odds of being born. To say that we are contingent beings is a vast understatement. Binazir decided to test the Buddhist understanding against the modern scientific understanding. The chances of them talking to one another is 1 in 10. Each sperm and each egg is genetically unique because of the process of meiosis. He looked at the odds of your parents meeting, given how many men and women there are on Earth and how many people of the opposite sex your mother and father would have met in their first 25 years of life. The chances of your specific sperm meeting your specific egg? Think about yourself.You are here becauseYour dad met your mom.Then your dad and mom conceived you.So a particular egg in your momJoined a particular sperm from your dadWhich could only happen because not one of your direct ancestors, going all the way back to the beginning of life itself, died before passing on his or her genesSo what are the chances of you happening?Of you being here? If you need to flag this entry as abusive. They look like this , or this, and have to be avoided at all costs. Are they gross exaggerations? Author, Happiness Engineer & Personal Growth consultant creating tools for greater wellness & flourishing. A lovely day to you. An unimaginably long time. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. For perspective on the size of those numbers, there are only 10x 80 elementary particles in the observable universe.). That's a pretty straightforward calculation. So let's say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million, or one in 20,000. Then the probability of Mr. Step 3. Which one's bigger? Dr. Ali Binazir, who describes himself as a happiness engineer, thinks its way off the mark. Anything with a lower probability than that would not happen, said Borel the numbers man. Visions in Lent: Family Life As a Seen in a Rock Tumbler. The first single-cell organism emerging from an inanimate chemical soup is not something that could have happened by chance. A rational approach acknowledges that incredibly low probabilities is not the same as zero probability. Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: 1 in 2000. Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or about 1 in 700 trillion. They each roll the dice -- and they all come up the exact same number -- say, 550,343,279,001. And worry and fear? First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. To say that someone or something is contingent is to say that the existence of same is not inevitable but rather can only come about based on a number of previous things being true in a chain of being or causality. God has always known us, intended us, loved us, and planned for us. Who knows, maybe the ball that vanished into childhood's thicket? So to the second question: how accurate is this number? It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. If I had 400 trillion pennies, I could probably build a decent-sized penny fortress with it. Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are. The probability that you came about and exist today is the same as that turtle sticking its head out of the water into the middle of that life preserver. That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion. The good news is that the fee is only $10 per class 10-20x cheaper than therapy, and probably more effective. Step 2. By that definition, Ive just proven that you are a miracle. Perhaps three years ago or just last Tuesday a certain leaf fluttered from one shoulder to another? Probability of every one of your ancestors reproducing successfully: one in 10. You are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. He used a thought experiment to illustrate this that became known popularly as the infinite monkey theorem; this states that if an infinite number of monkeys pound the keys of an infinite number of typewriters they will eventually write the complete works of Shakespeare. This content is accurate and true to the best of the authors knowledge and is not meant to substitute for formal and individualized advice from a qualified professional. June 5. So to the second question: how accurate is this number? To illustrate how precious each human being is, self-help author Mel Robbins said during a 2011 Ted Talk that the likelihood of you being born as you has been calculated at about one in 400 trillion. Say that over the course of all human existence, the likelihood of any one human offspring to survive childhood and live to reproductive age and have at least one kid is 50:50 -- one in two. Which one's bigger? You are also agreeing to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. I have over 2,000 posts here & my recovery related blogs are all under the RecovHer category at the top. In it, she mentioned that scientists calculate the probability of your existing as you, today, at about one in 400 trillion (410 14). Ensure you visit this website and get the right details and names that fits your babies. Previously, I had heard the Buddhist version of the probability of "this precious incarnation." A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. The chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is about 1 in 10. Scott and Janice Huse, in their 1997 book The Collapse of Evolution, state that It is very significant to note that mathematicians generally consider that any event with a probability of one chance [in] 10^50 as having a zero probability (i.e. Seriously, look around, look up to the sky, take this all in. This is also true of their parents, and so on till the beginning of time. So I got curious: Are either of these estimates correct? Contributors control their own work and posted freely to our site. To be more specific, its probably 1 in 102,640,000. They'd be amazed to hear that Chance has been toying with them now for years. If you assume the current population is 1% of the history of humanity, the total number of combinations increases to 1.1 x 10^39. Let's say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause don't count. By that definition, I've just proven that you are a miracle. So lets say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million: Probability of boy meeting girl: 1 in 20,000. 3.97 avg rating 549 ratings published 2010 5 editions. The following analysis, paraphrased at some points, is taken directly from Mr. Binazir's article: The probability of father meeting mother is 1 in 20,000. Then, I hope and believe, that He has written my name on the palm of His hand, so whenever He looks at His hand, He thinks of me. whump prompts generator > mecklenburg county, va indictments 2021 > dr ali binazir odds of being born. According to author Mel Robbins, scientists have estimated that our odds of being born are about 1 in 400 trillion. I gotta say, the two numbers are pretty darn close, for such a farfetched notion from two completely different sources: old-time Buddhist scholars and present-day scientists. Here it should be realize it is a quest work. Now imagine that each time the fly comes back from the moon it brings with it a speck of moon dust the size of a grain of sand (lets say 1 mg). To that, we could add the probability that the one sperm and the one egg met one another because she wasnt in the mood, but lets not split hairs here. If the first shot fall into the black hole, it remains only the red, and not green or blue. Then what would be the chance of your particular lineage to have remained unbroken for 150,000 generations? I would call that a personal relationship with God. Hello there! Because the existence of you here now on planet earth presupposes another supremely unlikely and utterly undeniable chain of events. So what's the probability of your being born? Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age, going back about 150,000 generations to the origin of man. Remember the sperm-meeting-egg argument for the creation of you, since each gamete is unique? Dr. Ali Binazir illustrates the extremely unlikely chain of events that would have to occur in order for you to be born with this . So the probability of your parents' chance meeting resulting in kids is about one in 2000. Do you know the odds of being alive? He looked at the amount of water in the oceans, compared to the size of a life-preserver. That chain involved every ancestor, all the way back to the original hominids, getting romantic at precisely the right moment to keep the sequence going that produced you. The Nobel Prize winning poet Wislawa Szymborska once wrote about two lovers who liked to think they'd met entirely by chance, but no, she says, there was nothing chancy about it. Lets say the fly takes a brief respite of one million years between trips. And the chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in 2. I believe The Source who I call God loves us infinitely, unimaginably. 2023 BuzzFeed, Inc. All rights reserved. For the curious, that is expressed as one in 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. They say that it is impossible for human life to exist without divine intervention. dr ali binazir odds of being bornmartin et julien bouchet biathlon. The moon is about 240,000 miles from the Earth. Let's say a life preserver's hole is about 80cm in diameter, which would make the area inside about 0.5 square meter. We do not only have common English names, but also uncommon ones that have unique origins and meanings. Fortunes were lost as players bet huge amounts on red in the erroneous belief that the law of probabilities dictated the ball would not drop on black again. If one square kilometer is a million square meters, then the probability of Mr Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or. Remember the sperm-meeting-egg argument for the creation of you, since each gamete is unique? 2023 BuzzFeed, Inc. All rights reserved. Consider some of the contingencies and requirements for your existence as set forth by Mr. Binazir. If they met one new person of the opposite sex every day from age 15 to 40, that would be about 10,000 people. The odds of you being born as you are about 1 in 400 trillion, or more. They agree to within a factor of two! First, let's talk about the probability of your parents meeting. Imagine there was one life preserver thrown somewhere in some ocean, with exactly one turtle in all of these oceans, swimming underwater somewhere. Dr. Binazir calculated that the odds against each of us being born produced a number that makes the brain hurt. A donut with no hole, is a Danish. enough to delve into higher mathematics discover there are many tripwires ahead of them. Let's not get carried away here; we'll just deal with the human lineage. The chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is 1 in 2. In 1913, at the roulette wheel at the Casino de Monte-Carlo, the ball dropped into a black slot 26 times in succession. You may quibble with some of the Binazirs assumptions above. Half of those people, or 200 million, will be of the opposite sex. Osterholm is one of the world's foremost public health professionals, having served for 40 years on the frontlines of such diseases as Ebola, SARS, MERS, Zika and everything else. Thats a pretty straightforward calculation. But, doesnt that seem a bit low? Blog Home Uncategorized dr ali binazir odds of being born. The odds of becoming a millionaire in America are between 6.4% to 22.3% according to data from the Federal Reserve Boards Survey of Consumer Finances. Well then, that would be one in 2 , which is about one in 10 -- a number so staggeringly large that my head hurts just writing it down. And the chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in two. (This is also known as "consulting" -- especially if you show it all in a PowerPoint deck.). But when we take it back throughout all the unbroken generations of life, then to the formation of the earth, then the development of the galaxy, then the universe being created from the Big Bang, your odds have now been reduced to 1 in 10 followed by 2,685,000 zeroes. So now we must account for those 150,000 generations by raising 400 quadrillion to the 150,000 power: That's a ten followed by 2,640,000 zeroes, which would fill 11 volumes the size of my book. xx, Lets be social! Multiplying it all together for the sake of completeness (Step 1 x Step 2 x Step 3 x Step 4): Probability of your being born: one in 10.